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，底线200亿元现金分红对应股息率约6.0%，若叠加股东增持及回购注销金额，实际股息率可达9.3%-10.5%。盈利预测方面，国海预计五粮液2026至2028年营收分别为463亿元、518亿元和574亿元，同比分别增长14%、12%和11%；归母净利润分别为145亿元、170亿元和201亿元，同比分别增长62%、17%和18%，对应P/E（市盈率）分别为23倍、20倍和17倍，维持“买入”评级。　

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